If I’m being completely candid, I believe Joe Biden is compromised. I have access to the same Hunter Biden information that the public does, and the implications are hard to ignore. But the core issue here is simpler: malinvestment always leads to recession, and changing the definition of “recession” won’t alter economic reality. Over the next few weeks or months, it will become increasingly clear that recessions are fundamentally shortages. The Federal Reserve would be wise to continue raising rates in order to restrain government spending; however, if the commodity markets collapse, policymakers will likely use that as justification to reverse course.
Private banks see the same economic data I do, which is why I do not expect them to lend money indiscriminately. The only institutions likely to extend reckless credit moving forward are Western governments, who are betting heavily on the so-called “Wealth Effect.” If you’ve ever watched those hyper-positive motivational webinars, you may notice a similar pattern in political messaging: many modern politicians are trying to speak outcomes into existence rather than relying on sound policy.
The truth is that political leaders can be astonishingly incompetent. If this is the first time you’re realizing how uninformed many politicians are, welcome to a very large club. Some of us have been warning about the inherent weaknesses of political democracy for years. Free-market democracy offers real checks and balances. Political democracy, in contrast, often rewards shallow thinking and poor decision-making. People may point to Joe Biden as the problem, but he received more votes than any presidential candidate in U.S. history—so should the voters who endorsed this direction share some responsibility?
Socialism: An Economic and Sociological Analysis – Ludwig von Mises
Meanwhile, crime is rising, the border remains unguarded in meaningful ways, and the President’s son is embroiled in scandals involving foreign connections to Ukraine, Russia, and China—three countries that have strained relationships with the United States. Despite this, the administration continues its aggressive stance against domestic fossil-fuel production. One could reasonably argue that these policies ultimately benefit foreign adversaries. Russia profits from elevated energy prices, Ukraine benefits from billions in U.S. military aid, and China gains from growing trade imbalances.
Omnipotent Government: The Rise of the Total State and Total War – Ludwig von Mises
In today’s environment, the average person possesses a very limited understanding of economics and finance. This is why the “Wealth Effect” strategy—combined with redefining what constitutes a recession—may temporarily appear effective. But those paying attention should watch closely for additional stimulus or direct payments from Washington. These actions always signal stress within the system, even when the U.S. dollar still retains significant global confidence.
Consumer-price inflation is the predictable consequence of undermining domestic energy production and destabilizing the petrodollar. While some may attempt to downplay or redefine recession, the trajectory is unmistakable. I have referred to this phase as #LateStageSocialism for years—not as a slogan, but as a description of a system running out of viable ideas. The redefinition of recession doesn’t bother me; I don’t own rights to the word. But the implications are serious.
Late-Stage Socialism is becoming increasingly visible. Welfare states around the world are functionally bankrupt, propped up only by monetary expansion and political narratives. The fact that Russia’s economy can appear stronger than America’s on paper shows just how distorted conditions have become. In my view, austerity measures will eventually be the only pathway back to stability.
Interesting times ahead.
