In previous posts, we’ve maintained that the Canadian Union of Postal Workers (CUPW) has no real leverage—unless Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government artificially creates it in hopes of courting political support. Even then, 55,000 scattered votes from postal workers across the country don’t amount to a powerful bloc. In contrast, a centralized provincial teachers’ union wields far more influence.
Unless there’s something we’re missing, CUPW—which represents workers at a Crown corporation—has limited bargaining power. Their position only becomes strong if the federal government bends to their demands. Procurement Minister Joël Lightbound’s relationship with CUPW leadership appears cordial, but from a broader perspective, all signs now point to Canada Post heading toward privatization. And frankly, CUPW has no one to blame but itself.
CUPW Turns Down, what we thought was a very generous offer
Canada Post recently tabled what we believe was a very generous offer—a 13.56% wage increase over four years. CUPW not only rejected it but hinted at a full-blown strike if their demands weren’t met. Rather than preventing escalation, Lightbound’s reform package accelerated what was already inevitable. If CUPW doesn’t accept the deal, we expect the government to legislate them back to work within weeks. After that, buyout offers may begin to circulate, and we strongly suggest Canada Post employees consider accepting them. Once privatized, Canada Post will likely create more jobs, albeit under different pay and benefit structures.
Where’s my mail?
The question many Canadians are now asking is: “How long until CUPW releases the packages they’ve held up?” That answer remains unclear. What is clear, however, is that Canada Post is functionally bankrupt—and the public has little patience left for finger-pointing. Whether the union, management, or government is to blame doesn’t matter anymore. The system is broken.
One CUPW leader reportedly stated that “Canada Post can’t go bankrupt.” If we accept that logic, then by extension, Universal Basic Income should not only exist—it should be unlimited, because apparently government entities can spend endlessly without consequence. This reasoning is absurd. For example, Cuba has never declared bankruptcy, but good luck exchanging Canadian dollars for Cuban pesos. The same goes for Venezuela and its bolívar. The public isn’t buying CUPW’s narrative, and it reflects poorly on the union as a whole.
We Have to Assume DHL Styled Privatization is now on the table, it’s exciting to think about
We also underestimated something in earlier commentary: the potential and viability of a privatized Canada Post—especially in rural areas. Under a private model, CUPW would no longer monopolize parcel delivery. This could open the door to innovation such as drone deliveries, autonomous vehicles, or localized courier startups—all developments that CUPW has stifled for decades. Contrary to fearmongering, this could result in more jobs and greater opportunity for Canadians, not less.
Let’s be clear: we don’t oppose Canada Post as a brand. In fact, its reputation could be far stronger than DHL’s. Freed from union constraints, Canada Post has the potential to be a global logistics powerhouse. In the same way auto insurers are required to serve all areas in Ontario, private carriers under UPU guidelines would still have to deliver to remote communities. It’s not about abandoning service—it’s about eliminating monopolistic inefficiencies.
UPU means ALL Canadians will still have the snail mail option
Canada Post, if privatized, could still operate under the Universal Postal Union (UPU) framework, ensuring international mail flows smoothly. The key difference? CUPW would no longer stand in the way of modernization. For decades, this union has resisted change, innovation, and efficiency. It’s time we face that reality.
In closing, the writing is on the wall. Canada Post is changing—and CUPW’s days of monopolistic control may soon be over. If that day comes, it could mark the beginning of a new, more innovative era in Canadian logistics.
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