The midterms are here. Many people make confident predictions. But whom should we trust?
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We’ve got the “experts” on tv.
Polls–there are lots of them.
Professional election forecasters.
And finally, the best predictors: people who bet.
The bettors are more accurate than anybody else, maybe because they put their own money on the line.
electionbettingodds.com, a website I created with Maxim Lott, averages prediction market data from betting websites around the world. That’s the best information we have about the future.