Quebec knows it has an issue with Islam, and Quebecers pay close attention to politics in France. They are also more aware than most Canadians of political developments in the U.K.
Left-wing thinkers tend to promote a welfare state without fully acknowledging the consequences. The fundamental drawback of a welfare state is that all citizens qualify for it.
So, if the federal government floods Canada with immigrants from backward Islamic countries—countries that may view Canada’s liberties and freedoms as a weakness to exploit—how do you combat that as a leftist?
The truth is, you can’t combat it as a leftist without resorting to something more extreme. Democratic socialism, which many leftists idealize, is fluid and lacks a solid foundation.
On this blog, we argue that Canada is heading toward serious economic problems because our welfare state has entered a stage of moral bankruptcy. There is no longer a clear foundation, yet Canadian leftists continue trying to expand it.
Leftists and socialists, in general, tend to resent wealth and the wealthy, and historically, the targets often become Jews. Islamists, and elements within Islam, also target Jews. Many French socialists, like other Europeans, appear to have a deeply rooted hostility toward Jewish communities.
This discussion centers around Quebec’s Bill 21, the Act respecting the laicity of the State (2019), which prohibits public sector employees in positions of authority—including teachers, police officers, and judges—from wearing religious symbols (e.g., hijabs, turbans, kippahs) at work. The law, aimed at enforcing state neutrality, has faced legal challenges and is currently before the Supreme Court of Canada.
It is no secret that many Quebecers want Islamists out of Quebec. Islamists are widely viewed as disruptive in Western societies. While other groups may also be perceived as contributing to social friction, Islamists—defined here as those who seek to impose Islamic dominance—are driving increasing public frustration. In some countries, like Poland, there have even been calls to ban Islam entirely.
I believe a ruling by the Supreme Court of Canada could fuel separatist sentiment in Quebec. Quebecers have historically shown a willingness to ignore federal rulings. In our view, Canada is moving toward a future of autonomous provinces.
What does this mean?
We could see scenarios similar to Taiwan-style autonomy emerging within Canada. This is largely due to Prime Minister Mark Carney, who is seen as highly divisive and indifferent to democratic concerns. At the same time, Canada—by our analysis—is financially unstable. If Alberta were to separate, which is not as simple as it is often portrayed, the first major shift would be the cessation of financial transfers to Ottawa.
Quebec does not contribute significantly to federal revenues—it is a recipient of transfer payments. So the question becomes: why would Quebec leave Canada? Our argument is that this is exactly why autonomy, rather than full separation, is becoming the likely outcome. Transfer payments may eventually come to an end.
From a foreign exchange perspective, markets do not care about the specifics of Canadian politics. The real tipping point would be if Alberta stopped using the Canadian dollar. While Alberta may hesitate to abandon the loonie immediately, the most realistic outcome of any successful separatist movement would be autonomy—not outright independence.
If Alberta leaves, Canada would no longer be able to afford supporting “have-not” provinces. That would leave provinces like Quebec in a difficult position. This is what we believe will ultimately lead to austerity.
Looking at the Supreme Court of Canada, it is worth noting that Stephen Harper appointed several justices who lean left, which ultimately benefited Justin Trudeau. Trudeau may go down as the Prime Minister who unintentionally accelerated the path toward provincial autonomy.
Quebec itself has multiple factions supporting separation. Many do not want Quebec to resemble France. Instead, they envision Quebec as a refuge for French-speaking Europeans and a leader in the global Francophone world.
Quebecers tend to be more politically strategic than Albertans. Alberta’s separatist movement often focuses heavily on economics, with culture as a secondary concern. As negotiations evolve, many expect a simple path to separation. In reality, the more likely outcome is autonomy followed by renewed negotiations—at which point Quebec will likely assert its position.