Polling suggests Poilievre sits at around 43% support nationally. In today’s political environment, that number alone could put him in the Prime Minister’s chair by default. Carney, meanwhile, must try to appease a coalition of long-time Liberal voters and newly arrived ones who expect more spending. But spending more in this environment only reduces the value of welfare checks. Imagine receiving government support that buys fewer goods and delivers worse services—that’s a collapse in living standards.