Donald Trump’s recent proposal to impose a 35% tariff on Canadian imports might sound alarming at first, but in reality, it would only affect about 10% of Canadian goods. In the grand scheme of things, this is not an existential threat to Canada’s economy.
The bigger issue—one that’s been quietly eroding Canada’s prosperity for years—is domestic: the operational cost of running the Canadian economy.
By this, I’m talking about government regulations, bureaucratic bloat, and the ever-expanding public sector. Many public sector workers have compensation packages that are indexed to inflation, which means that even during record months of economic growth, any surplus is quickly consumed by increased payroll and inefficiency. Add in the national debt and you begin to see the real problem: most of these public sector salaries aren’t even being funded by collected tax revenue. They’re being financed through borrowed money—much of it from the Bank of Canada.
Yes, the government can continue its borrow-spend-tax cycle, but doing so hollows out Canada’s productive, tax-paying industries. It’s a short-term political solution that causes long-term economic harm.
According to official reports, Canada added 83,000 jobs in June. On paper, that sounds great. But dig deeper, and the details tell a different story:
- Wholesale and retail trade led the way with 34,000 new jobs.
- Health care and social assistance added 17,000.
- The manufacturing sector, despite recent struggles, saw a gain of 10,000 positions.
- Only agriculture saw notable job losses, shedding 6,000 positions.
But here’s the catch: many of these gains appear to be part-time or seasonal in nature. The student unemployment rate remains alarmingly high at 17.4%—up from 15.8% last year. And while wages rose 3.2% year-over-year, that’s a slowdown from the 3.4% growth recorded the month prior.
Then there’s Windsor, Ontario, a trade-dependent city grappling with an 11.2% unemployment rate—the highest among all census metropolitan areas. Despite job growth in provinces like Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec, the overall picture remains uneven.
Now, if you’re looking at these numbers and thinking they seem oddly “rounded,” you’re not alone. Personally, I’ve grown skeptical of StatsCan under the Trudeau administration—not necessarily because of the institution itself, but because of how data is now being collected, categorized, and reported. And if you haven’t heard, governments around the world—including Canada—have quietly redefined what qualifies as a recession. That alone should raise some eyebrows.
At the end of the day, placing your trust in politicians, media spin, and manipulated economic data is a risky bet.
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