On April 28, 2025, Mark Carney defeated Pierre Poilievre to become Canada’s Prime Minister. Nearly four months later, it’s becoming clear that what we see from Carney is what we’ll get: more deficits, a bloated federal government, and no real reforms in sight.
Canada’s Dependence on the U.S.
Canada’s private sector relies heavily on the American consumer, which makes U.S. policy crucial for our economy. That’s why Donald Trump’s move to eliminate the de minimis exemption—a rule allowing small-value imports to enter the U.S. duty-free—should not be ignored.
This policy shift means that goods shipped into the U.S. from Canada or elsewhere will now face taxes. In the long term, this will be inflationary for the U.S. and shrink its private sector, since price controls and a welfare state prevent certain industries from returning home. But the damage to Canada will be far worse.
Canada’s welfare state is larger than America’s, which means Ottawa relies even more heavily on tax collection. When revenues drop after September 2025, deficits will grow, inflation will rise, and domestic consumers—already drowning in debt—will be forced to spend less. That is economic deflation: fewer goods and services purchased because fewer Canadians can afford them.
Welfare as Price Suppression
The welfare state, including Canada’s massive public sector, acts like rent control—suppressing real prices while hiding the underlying rot. Public servants’ salaries depend on private-sector growth, but under Carney that growth is collapsing.
As the economy contracts, Carney has shown no clear plan to address it. And perhaps that’s because he doesn’t know what to do.
Pierre Poilievre’s Position
Polling suggests Poilievre sits at around 43% support nationally. In today’s political environment, that number alone could put him in the Prime Minister’s chair by default. Carney, meanwhile, must try to appease a coalition of long-time Liberal voters and newly arrived ones who expect more spending.
But spending more in this environment only reduces the value of welfare checks. Imagine receiving government support that buys fewer goods and delivers worse services—that’s a collapse in living standards.
The Canadian media will attempt to spin this as Poilievre’s fault, but it won’t stick. He isn’t Prime Minister. And Carney has a working majority in Parliament, thanks to Bloc and NDP support, which means any new spending will sail through.
The real problem is that Canada doesn’t need more welfare—it needs austerity.
Why Poilievre Should Say Less
For Poilievre, now is the time to keep his message simple. He should resist the temptation to make promises. Instead, he should remind Canadians that after more than a decade of Liberal mismanagement, recovery will be tough.
If pressed for specifics, a wise response would be: “I can’t know how much damage Carney will leave behind, but I will do my best to repair it as quickly as possible. I can’t promise it will be easy.”
That kind of realism will resonate with voters. Over-promising, by contrast, risks giving the Liberals and their allies ammunition to attack him later.
Looking Ahead
If Carney continues down his current path, voter turnout in the next election could be low—particularly among left-wing voters disillusioned by collapsing living standards. Historically, progressives in Canada don’t take responsibility for policy failure; they simply stop showing up to the polls.
That’s why Pierre Poilievre’s smartest move right now is to say less, wait, and allow Carney’s policies to unravel.
Consider making Jesus Christ your Lord and Savior today.
