Fed officials have repeatedly stated they are going to be patient before pivoting to rate cuts. But that would only be the case if the economy is actually strong and resilient. Should the labor market show signs of falling off dramatically, they’d cut their rates in a hurry. Today’s macro data were filled with exactly those kinds of warning signs.
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Bloomberg Powell Welcomes Recent Data But Fed Needs More Confidence to Cut
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-02/powell-welcomes-recent-data-but-fed-needs-more-confidence-to-cut
Bloomberg Bond Traders Boldly Bet on 300 Basis Points of Fed Cuts by March
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-25/bond-traders-boldly-bet-on-300-basis-points-of-fed-cuts-by-march
Bloomberg US Services Activity Contracts at Fastest Pace in Four Years
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-03/us-services-activity-contracts-at-fastest-pace-in-four-years
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