Austerity Measures or continued Consumer Price Inflation: Why Investors are holding onto USD cash with Expectation of ECONOMIC deflation in 2022 – The Turkish Interest rate problem – December 20, 2021,
I personally see no reason to use classic definitions to explain the madness in the marketplace, we are in real-time witnessing the challenges of a world’s reserve FIAT currency looking to rediscover prices in a deflationary economic world. To hide economic deflation, most governments have engaged in central bank liquidity.
The response by most governments to the covid-19 pandemic has been to levy more regulations on the economy. Excessive government regulations on the economy was something I was writing about long before the pandemic and since 2019, more economic regulations and/or restrictions have now become the norm in most countries on the planet, this is of course deflationary, however, to hide the deflation, some governments have been engaging in free cash giveaways for corporations and consumers.
Now, it doesn’t take a genius to figure out that this would lead to consumer prices inflation, and/or SHORTAGES because when you give something away for free that others have to work for, while at the same time making life more difficult to produce for the producers, this will equate to a deflationary economy. To hide this deflation fiat money is deployed and this fiat money sends all the wrong pricing signals to the world.
What this ultimately equates to however is a problem for governments, because this money has to be accounted for and if it’s not, people may start rejecting the fiat currency altogether. Now, by rejecting I am they will demand more or less of it, depending on the regulations imposed on the private sector. We have Employees and not slaves in societies and when these employees decide that want to be paid more for their labor, these employees can decide NOT to work.
This has a ripple effect, because the government who created this mess by giving away free fiat money to people who didn’t deserve it, has to incentivize people who are no longer working to get back into the employment pool? Maybe a change to the minimum wage law might help the government achieve this goal, but what you have to remember is that there are SHORTAGES, meaning that if minimum wages go up, so do consumer prices, because the government didn’t lift the regulations on the economy, and as everyone knows, more regulations equate to higher costs.
Via regulations, as an example businesses now have to spend more money on cleaning supplies and paying employees to clean, until further notice, this will be a PERMANENT additional cost for retailers., which they have to pass on to consumers. Sure the government can lie to voters and make it appear that businesses are price gouging, but retailers can respond by closing their doors.
In the minds of most people, they imagine that government controls the private sector, so for many, they imagine that when government creates a regulation on the private sector that the private sector services they experienced prior to the regulation will exist in the same manner, for the same price after the regulations, the financially uneducated consumer never imagines the consequences of government regulations and this is the real reason why Austerity measures is such a dirty word.
I personally think things are going to get a whole lot worse before they get better because my listening ears have concluded, that people on the Left, think money cures all things, and most people on the political Right imagine that as long as their preferred politician gets into power things will be better than they are now. Unfortunately, the reality of the situation is that the size of government has to shrink and government shrinks when either interest rates are normalized or the inflation in the world’s reserve currency runs rampant.
Once it becomes evident that inflation is running rampant and can’t be stopped without normalizing interest rates, I think more people will start to investigate why this is happening. I personally do not think the world is there yet, because only energy, real estate, food, and some other areas of the economy are getting more expensive, I think once everything uniformly starts to rise in price and more people are poorer, and shortages become a real problem, that’s when the call for shrinking the size of government will accelerate.
Although some think a global reset will fix the problem, I think these people ignore SHORTAGES! money, Gold and Silver, bitcoin none of these mediums of exchange can solve SHORTAGES problems. You solve shortage problems by getting the government out of the way and normalizing interest rates. Central Bank digital currencies, will accelerate the problem and because fewer people trust it, if it’s launched as a replacement with all the current regulations place, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if it too hyperinflated.
I call this era Late Stage Socialism #LateStageSocialism, I think in prior eras, times like this led to war, not sure what will happen this time around, humanity could be in the early stages of a renaissance period. By early stages I mean it could be 2-100 years from now, why I believe we’re headed for a renaissance period is because the flaws of centralization are being exposed and unraveled.
Obviously, there are people who want to fight back against the decentralization of power, but I think it’s inevitable at this point, that the era of big government could be coming to an end, but how we reach this renaissance period is beyond my comprehension, I just think more and more humans are aligning themselves with natural laws of the universe and this clarity is likely to spread.
I think the markets comprehend what’s going on, the response of the market is obviously going to be scattered, none of us think in the exact same way, but we can all see that big government really screwed up this time, many of us are merely waiting to see what their next move is. Now, the last thing any government wants in this market are Gold and Silver prices exploding, because Gold and Silver can serve as real money and would dissolve governments’ fiat money privileges.
Understanding why raising interest rates is NOT stopping inflation in Turkey – Central bank interest rate controls vs. Market Interest Rates
Bitcoin at $5000 is evidence central banking is in trouble, Bitcoin at $50,000 is a clear sign that the markets feel like hyperinflation of the U.S dollar and fiat money, in general, is inevitable. Governments could respond by allowing rates to rise, but the problem with simply allowing rates to rise in this climate is that there’s an inflation problem, meaning that central bank interest rates are keeping up with inflation, we’re seeing this in TURKEY.
The Turkish and I believe the Brazilian governments/central banks have attempted to stop inflation by raising interest rates, the problem is that their interest rates are rising in a controlled centralized environment and the markets don’t trust it. This is the problem with central banks, that government people don’t understand, once, the markets stop trusting you, it’s game over if lets for a second imagine that Jerome Powell raises interest rates with the expectation that inflation will stop, but because of regulations on the U.S economy, higher rates simply equate to higher costs for producers? What then? I’ll answer the question, raising interest rates will have no POSITIVE effect on the economy.
But what will happen is that special interest groups and politicians who imagine they’re smarter than the markets will argue like Donald Trump argued that interest rates should go negative? Do you see where I’m going with this? This is why it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if interest rates rise and then return back to zero, but again this all signals consumer price INFLATION in the face of a deflationary economy.
I’ve been writing for months now that I think Gold and Silver are going to go on sale, because I don’t see anyone talking or writing about austerity measures, meaning that people imagine that Joe Biden is the only problem in all of this? No, regulations, in general, are the problem, there’s too much government in our lives. To date, people are still asleep on the matter, but I suspect more people will wake up as life begins to get more expensive, which for me equates to a potential renaissance period once MORE people figure out that centralization of power is a dumb idea.
Interesting times ahead