My Number Prediction Has Always Been The Canadian Condo Markets Will Crash First: Pre-construction condo flippers may be left holding the bag as buyers disappear(Financial Post) – October 15, 2022,
First and foremost, I’m not the only person who predicted the condo market will crash first; however, my reasoning for why the condo market will crash differs from most people, as I’ve stated it blatantly in prior posts that the Canadian Condo market has NO REAL DEMAND from people who want to make a condo their main place of residence.
The Canadian condo market is filled with TRADERS, Speculators, and people looking to buy, hold and FLIP for a profit at a later date; it’s one of the major reasons you have a lot of people in Canada TERRIFIED that interest rates are rising. A lot of Canadians who aren’t mortgage or auto-loan poor won’t even notice interest rates rising.
Credit card rates have always been above 17%, meaning that if the bank of Canada raises rates above 10%, unless you have a line of credit or auto loan, you’ll barely notice, and even if you are affected, maybe you declare bankruptcy or opt for a consumer proposal, this may indeed seize up the Canadian financial markets, forcing the financial sector to change its lending behavior, but where the REAL problem remains is the CONDO MARKET.
The detached and semi-detached market likely has people who use these properties as their main place of residence;. However, I’m sure there are flippers in the detached housing market, I doubt the problem is as bad in the detached housing market as it is in the Condo market, where MOST buyers are FLIPPERS and speculators.
I read about rental apartment shortages all over Canada, and most people IGNORE how CMHC created this disaster. I, on the other hand, write about The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation(CMHC) all the time and what I write about most is all the MALINVESTMENTS created by the CMHC(a FEDERAL Crown corporation) that INCENTIVIZES Canadians to purchase and BUILD CONDOS.
Prior to the CMHC getting into the CONDO market, it was EXTREMELY difficult to sell a condo. In the 1990s(prior to CMHC getting involved in mortgage insurance and zero down mortgages), it wasn’t UNCOMMON for Pre-construction condo flippers to lose their money on a condo development; in fact, a lot of us remember a lot of condos turning into Rental purposed Apartment because the MARKET hated these condo projects.
It’s hard for me to imagine that the market all of sudden wants these shoebox boxes that are constructed worse NOW than they were in the 1990s when they actually had to meet the demands of people who planned to LIVE there. People who actually buy a condo unit to live there are often SHOCKED to discover how badly built their condo is.
I’ve seen and read about instances of a NEWLY BUILT condo unit having leaking problems, flooding problems, flooring problems, electrical problems, you name it, I’ve heard about it; if you’re wondering why most people don’t speak up about it, is because they have high hopes of FLIPPING their condo unit in the future and potentially using that money to buy a DETACHED home where the price is CHEAPER than the price paid for the condo unit.
Rich people and I’d argue OLD; retired people who are tired of maintenance related to their detached house are the main buyers of condos, maybe some students want to live there for school, but they don’t want to live there PERMANENTLY and would like to prefer to RENT instead of buy because after all what student or PARENT wants to have all their money tied up in a condo?
Yes, I know about the FOREIGN buyers driving up prices, but the real problem is the DOMESTIC buyer, foreign buyers, are easier to blame because it deflects from the CANADIAN FEDERAL GOVERNMENT being the root cause of higher housing prices. Whether Conservative or Liberal most Canadian politicians will shift the blame to someone or something EXTERNAL, and since the foreign home buyer can’t VOTE, the politicians and the media find it easier to blame the foreign boogieman when the truth is the problem stems from THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT.
CONSUMER demand FOR A central bank and fiat Money (Austerity Measures or FINANCIAL DESTRUCTION)
Consumer price inflation is DEFLATIONARY, which is counterintuitive for most people, who imagine that higher consumer prices should equate to MORE STUFF. Quite the opposite, consumer price inflation creates SHORTAGES of stuff. Shortages of HOUSING are one of the problems with CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION because you’ll get fewer builders who want to build because, as an example, in the modern era, labor wants MORE MONEY to be compensated for consumer price inflation.
So if labor wants higher wages, and the condo market as an example, is lacking BUYERS, you start to see the problem brewing, and this is why I’ve stated the Progressive War on Fossil Fuels better end QUICKLY, and people, regardless of political leanings, better start telling the truth and start blaming consumer price inflation on where the people who VOTED FOR A GREEN NEW DEAL or voted for Justin Trudeau to implement a CARBON Tax and declare war on fossil fuels, because the central banks aren’t creating consumer price inflation, consumer price inflation was created by the VOTING PUBLIC, who want something for nothing.
The WELFARE LOVING voting public got BAILED out by fossil fuels, fossil fuels, namely PLASTIC, which changed the human condition for the better in so many different ways that many of us can’t even imagine. Most of us think about automobiles when we think about oil and gas, ignoring all the other things fossil fuels do to make our STANDARD OF LIVING better.
Can’t build or MAINTAIN a condo without fossil fuels, but yet and still in Western nations all over the world, people, many of whom are on or dependent on some sort of government WELFARE, decided to declare WAR on the standard of living. Fossil fuel companies can pay shareholders a dividend WITHOUT the assistance of the government; most of you dependent on a pension might be surprised to learn how reliant your pension is on real estate and FOSSIL FUELS.
So when these idiot voters decided to vote for the green energy revolution, what they actually voted for was a WELFARE for green energy companies, which was actually a redistribution scheme that takes money from one WELFARE class and gives it to a CORPORATE welfare class. There are green energy companies as an example that pay shareholders a dividend because of the FREE MONEY they get from the GOVERNMENT.
What I’m getting at here is that most of these solar, wind, and biomass companies would be BANKRUPT without the assistance of the government and because the VOTING public assumes going green is FREE, many are 100% on board. In Canada, as an example, the various levels of government periodically send VOTERS free money to make the green energy revolution appear like it’s not only FREE but also paying people to do it.
When I hear the Federal Liberal and Conservative Party leaders speak, both are trying to deflect blame away from the Scam we all know is a man-made climate change. Pierre Poilievre doesn’t really talk negatively about man-made climate change; in fact, Pierre Poilievre went as far as blaming the Tiff Macklem exclusively for consumer price inflation, acting as if central bankers were NEVER political.
Why is Pierre Poilievre attacking Tiff Macklem instead of focusing on Justin Trudeau? Because a lot of Canadian VOTERS still want the GOVERNMENT to battle this man-made climate change SCAM. I also like to point out that Pierre Poilievre supports supply management, which is a FAR LEFT GOVERNMENT pricing scheme used to prop up certain Canadian CORPORATE entities forcing Canadian CONSUMERS to pay prices, so spare me this NONSENSE that consumer price inflation is the fault of the CENTRAL BANKS.
If you believe that consumer price inflation is caused by central bankers, I humbly ask you to GROW UP and grow a pair. WE ARE ALL to blame for consumer price inflation, myself included, why? Because as an example, for the life of me, I don’t know how to convince people to embrace LIBERTY; in Canada, most Canadians still WANT a central bank.
Meaning that, yes, there still is a DEMAND for central banks, which by the way, is a form of COMMUNISM. Pierre Poilievre doesn’t appear to be against CENTRAL BANKING; no, he’s against Tiff Macklem being what he imagines is Justin Trudeau’s puppet; Pierre Poilievre wants his own central banker that he can control, one I assume can lower interest rates to make Pierre Poilievre happy.
Without a central bank, Justin Trudeau couldn’t do what he’s doing now, which is REDISTRUBUTIN money to his friends at the expense of his political opposition. Now, ofcourse what Justin Trudeau is doing should be ILLEGAL, but it’s not because Canadian DEMOCRACY, via the Canadian voter, likes the WELFARE State.
Well this war on fossil fuels PRIORITIES green energy, the man-made-climate change crowd, imagine that if the government doesn’t take swift and draconian actions, the planet will be destroyed, meaning that ENOUGH people are willing to DESTROY the Canadian economy for an UNDEVELOPED green energy revolution. Condos use a lot of fossil fuels, and I argue the condo market is HUGE BUBBLE that will POP if consumer price inflation rages forward.
Consumer price inflation is DEFLATIONARY, and that’s why I imagine Tiff Macklem continuing to raise rates, but even if Tiff Macklem stops raising rates, the condo market will likely crash anyway because, again, CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION IS DEFLATIONARY, buying a condo unit is not only about the cost to borrow, it’s also about the cost to SERVICE.
If my cost of living is high and I’m only putting down 5% or potentially less on a condo, even if mortgage rates are ZERO, I’m still paying maintenance costs related to my condo for the rest of my life, I’m also paying higher energy bills to fight the man-made climate change SCAM, I’m paying for higher food prices, I have to also point out that even if I buy an electric vehicle, I still have to PAY to charge my electric vehicle, people tend to forget that.
Furthermore, to change everything GREEN, likely municipal taxes, namely PROPERTY taxes, will be going up, and any wage increases are usually PERMEMNET price controls on society, meaning that consumer price inflation WILL NOT be transitory.
Again the easy fix to this madness is AUSTERITY MEASURES, but Canadians aren’t there yet; Canadians still want and are demanding more GOVERNMENT WELFARE, in closing I want the reader to remember that the condo boom is the result of GOVERNMENT WELFARE programs that allowed the government to create mortgage insurance products and zero-5% downpayments for people seeking to purchase a CONDO.
A lot of thee condos can’t be BUILT without the government, and the Canadian government, via its war on fossil fuels, is making BUILDING a condo more expensive; all of this points to DEFLATION!
Interesting times ahead!